Last Hunches Before the Oscars

I just watched "Walk the Line" and "Capote" this weekend to have a better judgement as to what movie is more deserving to win the coveted Oscar prize.

"Brokeback Mountain" again proved that it's as tough as a proud soaring mountain in the Best Picture category. For the past months, it has been the most talked about movie sentationalized by media, film critics and even moralists from east to west. Different countires have banned the movie in their territory, basing their judgement on some moral concerns. However, film critics are still raving for the movie's achievement. Many have given the movie its director, Ang Lee and the cast awards and praises for the ambitious work in the industry and successfully making a classic movie.

The Independent Spirit Awards awarded "Brokeback Mountain" Best Picture this weekend again proving that it might win the Oscars aside from winning a series of Best Picture trophies before. Philip Seymour Hoffman also won the Best Actor award for portraying the role of gay American writer, Truman Capote, which also solidifies his Oscar win just hours from now. However, the charming portrayal of Reese Witherspoon as June Carter in "Walk the Line" wasn't the Indie's favorite. Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica" playing the role of a gay man won the Best Actress title.

Now here are my hunches for this year's Oscar awards.

I have already plotted by bets before and I believe I'm sticking to that.

LEAD ACTRESS
Reese, like what I said, was charming in the movie "Walk the Line". She performed well, sang well, and so on but the whole role (for me) didn't give much exposure for her to win the Oscar. Plus, I have a theory before that Oscars may has a tendency to snub lead role actresses coming from movies under Musical or Comedy category of the Golden Globes.

Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge" was my bet but she didn't win the Oscar. Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball" won the award instead. Renee Zellwegger was the darling of most critics and actors to win the Oscar when she played Roxie in "Chicago". She went home empty-handed; Nicole Kidman in "The Hours" won the title.

With a sort-of "weak" role of Reese in "Walk the Line" the Academy might be giving the award to Felicity instead because of a more challenging role as a gay man preparing for a sex-change surgery, which is really a complex role to handle. I want Resse to be happy (winks); I've seen her movies since I was in high school and I sorta admire her as an actress (slash comedienne). However, my vote still goes to Felicity.

LEAD ACTOR
For the lead actor title, it is clear that it's a duel between Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain" and Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote". But Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line" is also a tough actor to beat. I've seen the three films (I haven't seen "Hustle and Flow" and "Good Night and, Good Luck) and I can say that I'm still sticking to my previous vote. It was late at night already and I think I got bored watching "Capote" but I enjoyed "Walk the Line".

I do not know Johnny Cash and Truman Capote and I have no reference as to who they were until I watched the films. So I cannot say who did the a better job between the two in portraying a non-fictional character. Hoffman was consistent with his mannerisms as a Truman though I only liked his acting at the latter part of the movie. Plus I think there's something wrong with the directing. I may be too sleepy that's why I'm reviewing the movie this way. LOL.

On the other hand, I liked "Walk the Line". Both actors, Phoenix and Witherspoon did great.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain" is up against George Clooney in "Syriana" and Matt Dillon in "Crash". It's a big fight. I think it's anybody's game among the three.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain" was a surprise for me. I really hope she wins this award. But the favorite in the category is Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener" who was said to portrayled a role better than Ralph Fiennes. On the other hand, a dark horse contender may also bag this award. Amy Adams in "Junebug" received an award in Critics' Choice Awards and Independent Spirit Awards.

PICTURE
Some say that "Crash" might be going home with the award. But I'm fine with that if that happens. It's a great movie teaching everyone a very important lesson; a lesson not only to learn but to apply. "Brokeback Mountain" speaks about love as a "force of nature". Many criticized it from the beginning but it proved its worth by bringing home the Best Picture trophies in most critic groups in the US even in UK's BAFTA.

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, the director of "Brokeback Mountain" is now a tough one to beat in this category. After receiving countless awards plus a Directors Guild of America Award, he'll surely be a big winner later this morning (Manila). However, the Academy has always been unpredictable. He didn't win the Best Director award for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and the award was given to Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic." But still, I believe Academy will favor his work. A possible winner would be Steven Spielberg (sigh... the greatest).

I'm now in the office. I just saved my blog early this morning and I just finished the whole thing here. It's sad that I won't be able to see it live but I'll be fine refreshing the pages of Yahoo and Oscar.com. [Sad face]. ¿?